Strategic uncertainty of “Ukraine project”

The position of Ukraine nowadays can be described as “strategic uncertainty”. Not mostly regarding to the state on itself, but more likely “Ukraine project”.

In the context of “Ukraine project” paradigm any tactical moves undertaken by new authorities should be based on definition of the markers of future country’s strategy.

Naturally, on the one hand, there is world economic crisis, on the other hand, disastrous state of Ukraine’s economy, political crisis, many pending issues in the constitutional field… But anyway this position should become clarified.

Projects of the countries

This state of uncertainty has not occurred during this year. Ukraine has been in this state since 1991 after becoming an independent state. For all these years it has been searching for its place in the world.  It is just presidential election campaign of 2010 that extremely actualized this uncertainty.

The case in point is goals and mission of “Ukraine project” first of all, priorities of national interests, cooperation with strategic partners.

Strategic uncertainty at the moment appears as a total absence of “Ukraine project” on itself. First of all, in the context of this project there are no definitions for goals, mission, strategy of the country, vectors and models of development, positioning in the world, own image of the world and etc. Secondly there is no competent team to be able to operate these issues.

Being in such a weak position Ukraine becomes a part of other projects, e.g. “Russian project”, “European Union project”; its position in these projects is far from comfortable and often discriminating.

The weaker country is the more “uncomfortable role” it is given in other projects; especially if the country does not have any idea of its wants yet. Actually the country wins its position in other projects and world on itself based upon its own strategy.

Looking at countries and international associations and estimating them from the point of strategic project management, we may point at some world projects as “USA”, “Europe”, “Russia”, “China”, “Japan” and others that are brilliantly actualized.

Countries create their own projects or unite and become a part of some global projects.

If we talk about “Europe project” it combines different europrojects with their own image of the world, development vector, e.g. European Union, Schengen agreement, Eurozone, West European Union and etc. For example, countries like France, Germany and others work towards achieving more significant and dominating position in this project. In the context of this project so-called “different-speed Europe” concept is discussed; this concept provides different degree of integration into European projects for different regions and countries.

Global projects-countries have their own advance techniques by forming of images and brands, using advertising techniques and adding capitalization to intangible assets of the areas. So to get to the modern person’s mind and occupy a leading or at least outstanding place in it, many PR and advertising techniques are used. Cities especially megapolises create their own brand-projects.

Every project of the country has its own advantages, for example scientific researches, systems of meanings, resources, education system, language, currency, which are used in different countries (e.g. language (English) and currency (dollar) are parts of “USA project”), armament, national characters (e.g. Santa Claus, St. Nicholas) and etc.

And finally each project has its own “image of the world”, system of values and identities, including system of replies for the question “what is good, what is bad”.

The designers of successful projects of the countries and associations develop the meanings and super ideas; they spend very much resource for developing their projects’ future management system, laying up profitable competitive advantages comparing to others in those images of future.

For every project the prediction of global tendencies is important as well as resourcing plan. At this time so-called “points or zones of growth” in different fields come to the fore. These are “points of growth” of economics, scientific breakthrough ideas and technologies, humanitarian initiative and etc.

Usually project management comes to the fore. Level of competence and legitimacy of the main project managers plays the major role in this management; leaders of the country are often engaged in this, creating appropriate institutions.

Actual crisis appeared a strength test for the global projects. “World financial crisis” is a cover hiding global changes not only in financial field but also in climate, world view, reality perception. And those changes are strong enough to be estimated as a national safety threat for many countries.

“Ukraine project” prospects

 Project prospects exist when the project exists on itself. The presence of methodological tools and competitive experts to be engaged in the “Ukraine project” is very important. This kind of approach is based upon strategic design.

Actual capabilities of Ukraine have been subjected to the great influence of former USSR: infrastructure development and logics of education system scheme, major directions of scientific researches, industrial development and agricultural sector. Since Ukraine became independent virtually no new concepts and innovative models of territorial and infrastructure development, structuring of habitat have been carried out; nevertheless the old guidelines are almost destroyed.

Objectively the world has changed. We live not in  industrial era, but in informational (even postinformational) one; the major part of the population has changed its lifestyle during past 100 years. For example, in 1913 there were 19% of the urban population and 81% of rural population in Ukraine; in 1959 – 46% and 54% respectively; in 1983 - 64% and 36%; and nowadays those numbers approach 70% (urban) and 30% (rural). Such changes are extremely important for design of adequate project of the country.

On the first stage of “Ukraine project” design it is very important to realize how the country exists; also so-called “Strategic package” should be developed. Determination of the national priorities in different fields for the country involves international politics, education system, safety system, national identity and etc.

It is important to design “image of the world” and “reason for being” for “Ukraine project” with necessary “behavior models”, “reality maps” and resourcing as well as development strategies and limit opportunities; so-called “success scripts” should also be designed.

It is very important to determine main strategic markers.

Identity markers: language, territory, culture, mode, myths and fairy-tales.

Resourcing markers: fertile land, territory, people as a nation and as a staff with potential, climatic capabilities, minerals including oil, gas and uranium.

Markers of project’s advantages: large area, scientific and technical capabilities, space technologies, military technologies, nuclear technologies, agricultural capabilities and etc.

Many experts of Europe and Russia want certainty and predictability from Ukraine, and in competitive conditions - its weakness.

By the way, to my mind, this discussion for our country’s leadership (“Russia or West”) is systematically and purposely forced from the outside exactly in such simplified paradigm. Actually we have great opportunities for cooperation with China, India, Brazil, Japan that considered to be future leaders of the world; but our elite is “drown away” from them by obtrusion of such “narrowed” image of the world.

For new authorities there are vitally important strategic questions which need to get correct and adequate answers:

1. What was Ukraine’s place in the “USSR project”?

2. What place can Ukraine occupy in “Europe project” (“European Union”)?

3. What place can Ukraine occupy in “Russia project”?

4. What place can Ukraine occupy in “USA project”?

5. How much can Ukraine’s position changed as a result of taking part in these projects?

6. Is strong and competitive Ukraine needed in these projects?

7. Who is engaged in “Ukraine project”?

8. What are the goals, tasks, claims and ambitions of “Ukraine project”?

9. What is the main direction of movement to the future of “Ukraine project”?

10. And finally what places will occupy “Europe», “Russia”, “China”, “USA”, “Japan” and others in “Ukraine project”?

The answers to these questions which has changed and make one think in the right direction.

At this time challenges of the present regarding to our county are so serious that there is a real threat for state system and sovereignty of the Ukraine.

“Ukraine for the people” or “Book of happiness”

For today the only future-oriented document released by new authorities is election program of Viktor Yanukovych “Ukraine for the people”. Based upon goals of this program and its supposed results it can be called “Book of happiness”.

Analysing “Ukraine for the people” program, unfortunately, we come up with conclusion that it is just a banal set of populist slogans and goals. Not even a hint of realization mechanism, “points of growth” for economy and ways to fill the budget in order to keep the promises.

Using expert approach to analyse this document (which is released on the official site of the President of Ukraine by the way), it is more than likely to see that even three budgets of Ukraine would not be enough to pay for all social promises stated in this program. By the way, for today budgeted deficit is already 30 billion UAH in 2010; foreign debt is 100 billion UAH. Even the Law about social standards though being often discussed does not contain so many social payments.

Why, after all, that situation was modelled and the program of Yanukovich was written not in space, but taking in to account real economical situation during crisis. Unfortunately, the virus of social populism has been inherited from the former authorities.

If something like “we do not know real economical situation, but we will figure it out and make everything better” had been written in this program this would be one thing. But the program contains certain dates and numbers.

For example, here are few quotes from this program:

-         50 million of Ukraine’s population by 2020;

-         Every child of Ukraine will get from 250 to 500 UAH monthly;

-         By birth of second and third child the family will get from 50 to 100 thousand UAH;

-         All doctors, military personnel, culture workers and policemen will get flats;

-         Financing of the medicine – 10 % of GDP;

-         Taxes cancellation during 5 years for small-scale business;

-         Entire military personnel employed for the first year will get accommodation.

Based upon this program new authorities have been elected. After the coalition in Verkhovna Rada was created and Nikolay Azarov was elected as a Prime-Minister of Ukraine there are no obstacles for the Party of Regions, President and Prime-Minister to keep their promises given to the source of power – people. I even have no doubt that the Law about budget, Government Program and other important documents will be written in the context of Yanukovych’ program “Ukraine for the people”. Hence we are likely to see some real results in this direction.

Talking about leading position of the Party of Regions in the present coalition its program documents come to the fore.

For example, it is “Strategy of economic development of Ukraine” written in 2005 that is available on the official site of the Party of Regions, and draft of the Law of Ukraine “About submission changes to the Constitution of Ukraine” (May, 2005). On the basis of these documents we can suppose what kind of changes Ukrainian present legislation will be subjected to.

Constitutional changes and reforms, ideally, should be based upon goals and tasks of the “Ukraine project”. Legislative and constitutional changes are just legal implementation of major development directions of the country; they are based upon political and strategic consensus in the society. For example, the policy of desirable constitutional changes of country’s form of government after political reform of 2004 is not described in the program documents of Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions.

As a result of changes to the Constitution of Ukraine submitted during “Orange Revolution” the country turned from presidential- parliamentary into parliamentary-presidential republic with powers of the President been “cut off”. Afterwards different constitutional changes have been proposed by different political powers: from abolition of the President post or President Election in the Parliament, to the restitution of Constitution and therefore consolidation of the powers of President.

There is a hope that new authorities will take all mistakes of the former leadership of the country into account and will start “from the head”, i.e. from the design of mission, goals and tasks of Ukraine; and they will approach to the development strategy of the country from the position of project paradigm. And we will see “Ukraine project” with the concept of development of the nation and culture of this territory, priorities of national interests, effective positioning in the world, strategic planning of the country’s development based upon innovative models, “points of growth”, competitive economy and structured habitat.

And all strategic documents released by the new authorities will be based upon adequate reality perception with considered mechanisms and development strategies.